Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Supply and Demand Benny

In SD.. we are looking for key imbalances..

Not just normal imbalances

If we sell at supply..we buy at demand

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If there is a very big cheong up. . Who can cause this? Only the big players..

Vs a Normal rise and retrace. .. small imbalances. .

Professionals. . Trade hundred of lots which are millions of dollars vs retail traders. .

.. now just 2 ERC candles can push the price down already.. vs previously usually need 10 candles etc..

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Support and resistance may be same as supply and demand.. but they are different rules. .

In SD.. we look at buyer and seller key imbalances. .

However looking for key imbalances is just the first step! ..  there are many other rules and considerations. .

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Tip : For beginners.. just take 1:3.. do not be greedy..

Swing trades. . SD trades can last days and weeks..

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Risk - 1 percent rule..  if I follow strictly this 1 percent rule.. I will never be bankrupt and lose my account

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Use driving car as analogy

1. Learn theory

2. Practice basics

3. In circuit

4. In road

5. Pass exam..

But does that mean I am a very good driver liao??? Will I be able to avoid accidents? ??

I need to keep driving day by day and clock hours to gain my experience! 

Attending a workshop is not enough..

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Use buying and selling a property as E. G. .. say I want to sell a property at 1 million.. suddenly price drop to 500k. . I miss it even I keep reducing my price. . 900 k, 800 k...

So when price come back.. will you be likely to sell?

Another analogy... like chopping a tree at the same spot.. first time you try to hack the tree..the tree won't fall.. but if you keep chopping at the tree.. the more bark I remove.. then weaker.. easier for tree to and higher chance for tree to fall. .

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Hence. .. SD is different from traditional support and resistance.. see below. .

We want to trade the first time..the first chance..

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Gap.. gap as key imbalances. . Remember Steve nison say gap is the strongest support and resistance..

Why are there gaps?  When the market is close. .retail traders can't trade. . But institution and market makers can make the trades. .

Hence..say when there is a news.. the gap occur..and cause the greatest imbalances. ..

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Put a pic. .

Me versus the super big guys

Me versus a pack of wolves eating meat..

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In SD.. we need to know the market turning point in advance! 

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Why do we want to set and forget and not wait for confirmation? 

Reason is to.sell or buy the highest.. hence I can have the risk reward 1:3 the highest..

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Key for synergy : each team member or student need to specialize on one currency pair because the behaviour is different

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Team viewer and any meeting (free webinar tools)

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News

Trading with bigger timeframe.. can avoid most news except non farm payroll,  FOMC or other interest related news

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Backtesting is critical!!!..

1. Because we need the confidence to set and forget and not wait for confirmation. .

2. Learn the currency behaviour

3. Build intuition to know if the supply or demand level is high or low probability

4. Slowly build up my winning rate and percentage


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