Vic Investment and Trading Journal: September 2015

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Bull market - take only longs and cover longs when there is a bearish signal

In bull market where the trend is up, don't do counter trend shorts!

Bearish signals are for longs exit or covering and not to take new sell positions!

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Stocks to see

1. Home bancorp

2. Valutronics

3. Golden agri

4. Sino tech

5. Baic motor

6. Cathays pacific

7. 8206 C Comm

8. Lenovo

Friday, September 11, 2015

Enneagram

1. Write also abt good things..be careful not too negative abt type

2.stress point

3. Quotes .. put quotes

4. Link back to type center ....driven by head centre

5. Traits

6. At the end.. introduce some action and reflection

Sunday, September 6, 2015

Counter trend trading

Especially..

1. Hammer/ shooting star and family

2. WoW ..esp H4 WoW with daily downtrend!

Fucking key rules

1. Money manganemnt -max 1% trade!

Impulsive vs corrective moves

Using identifying impulsive and corrective moves to trade as much with the trend as possible..

****the trend is my only friend!

Hence trend should be my 内功 and most important fundamental! !!

As what Jimmy Tong scolded me.. I must trade with the trend as much as possible!

Characteristics of impulse move

1. Very obvious.. the direction can be seen

2. Big red (or white) candles that easily engulf many opposing candles by eating up then(E. G. 1 candle eat up 4 candles ) in the direction of trend

3. In the direction of trend (E. G. Bearish) most of the candles are red ( more than 80 percent are red candles)

4. The close of the candle is near the entire candle low Itself ( I. E. No or v short wicks)

--------
Characteristics of corrective moves

1. Sprinkling of white and black candles in the direction (50-60 percent of each colour )

Tug of war going on.. less commitment

Hence higher chance market goes against me and I kana stopped out

2. Many spinning tops or Doji ( or g
Hammers and inverted hammers mid of trend). .indicating a lot of indecision.. there is probably no big hands supporting amd mostly retailers fighting each other
(A lot of price rejection pushing to middle )

3.many relatively smaller candles compared to rest

3 key components of my strategy

1. HTF trend

2. HTF market structure and curve

3. Trading setup or signal

- Hammer / shooting star , engulfing and family

- daily momentum

- daily WoW

- H4 momentum supported by daily TL or Daily WoW with no opposing on left of daily and R/R good

- bat , Gartley and Cypher (forex only for Cypher)

Saturday, September 5, 2015

Forex Trading Plan

Daily Momentum

Daily WoW with weekly at least in condoliation (Unless weekly overextended)

H4 momentum with daily SD in control

H4 harmonics with daily at least in consolidation (Unless got Impy market structure)

H1 harmonics with H4 trend or key trendline

Hang Seng Trading Plan

Hang Seng 10 min hammer/shooting star

TF : 10 min

1. Hammer or shooting star hit BB2 (better if hit BB3)

2 at least 1 R/R from MA20 to wick low

3. EP 3 pts above high

4. SL 10 pts below S/R or max 75 pips

5. Time must be at least 50 min before closing

6. All hands off for 3 candles. Money mgmt to manage position from 4th candle onwards

7. Journal in diary

----
930R and 115R

1. Price must move more than 70 pts and hit BB3

2. Wait for close of 1 min candle and enter on 2nd minute

3. SL 100 pips , TP 100 pips

4. When price move 50 pips shift up 50 pips too. When price move to MA20 shift to BE

---
BB20

Ideas for Dr Tee and James PA workshop

Dinosaur vs cockroach (Andy Yew)

Add affirmation.. law of secret..law of attraction

Key is to position the largest probability the trade will go in my direction

Price moves in path of least resistance.. but for ourselves the key is to move in path of most resistance at times! !!

Money management using MA!!!

Like using optimism levels... this can be an indicator for money management!

Friday, September 4, 2015

Daniel Loh bear market crash

Key takeaway

When fed funds rate go from 2.75%-3% be careful.

Action : take at least 30% profits at 2.75%, 3% get totally out of stocks

Target year to get out -2017

When fed funds rate reach 3.75%-4% Bubble burst.

In Year 2018, likely economy crash
In Year 2017 get fucking out of stock market.. since stock market will likely crash one year before economy crash

-----

show Nikkei example. . In 2013

3 phases of bull run

1. Speculative phase - rise from 8000 to 16000
2. Consolidation phase - 2013 when hit 16000..then consolidation to ard 12000
3. Super growth phase

----
Now US market in super growth phase..

Refer previous crashes

1. Dot com bust
2. Asian financial crisis
3. Lehman - hyper inflated property
4. Oil crisis 1973 -hyper inflated oil
5. Black October 1987 -hyper inflated stock
6. Interest rate bubble 1982

Crash only come during inflation or hyperinflation..

So now will a bear market soon? No.. because now core inflation of US still 1.8%.

We are nowhere in hyper inflation..

----
***Holy grail chart.. federal funds rate chart

----
2 kinds of Interest rate chart

Short term interest rate
Long term interest rate

Key date -16 Sept. Yellen will determine short term interest rate

Fed Funds is thr short term interest rate

As of Sept 2015, Fed funds rate is ard 0.025%. It has been close to 6 years where the fed funds rate is near 0. Since Ben Bernanke is the chief

Long term interest rate is more on supply and demand market forces. The long term rate is ard 2.2%

Interest rate or fed funds rate tell thr bull and bear market of economy (not stock market)

Rising interest rate - good economy
Falling interest rate -bad economy

Height of interest rate tells the height of the economy

----
Interest rate cycle got to do with spending habits!

Fed funds rate

2.5-3 times -Be careful
4 times - Bubble burst

----
1958 - 1% rise to 4% then bear market

1960 - 1.5% rise to 6% then near market

1976 - 5% rise to near 20% then bear market..

Everytime if it reach near 4 times then some bubble will burst!

---
Whether to know if phoney or real cash.. Ask..will this affect corporate performance of Macdonald?

Daniel loh options

1. Stick to 1 month time
2. Put option price $ less than stock price $$

E.g. now stock price is $1.32.

I (sell) short a put option at $1.2 for $5k.

Why? - I guess the price will not drop to $1.2 in 1 month time

As long as price do not drop below $1.2, I will make all the $5k.. therefore my probability of winning is high

And loss.. if the price do not drop too much from $1.2 , say price drop to $1.1, my loss from put options will be less than that if I actually hold the stock

---
EuroFX futures
Light Sweet Crude oil
Emini S&P
Golf
Coffee C
Natural Gas
Nikkei 225
Nasdaq
CBOE volatility (VIX)
30 year US T note
10 Year US T note
Soybean