Window Dressing

Window dressing -Bullish

1. March
2. June
3. Dec

Window dressing -Bearish

4. Sept

Christmas and thanksgiving- Don't trade!

World cup - Don't trade!

Because market slows down 

Bank holidays don't trade!

Bull market - take only longs and cover longs when there is a bearish signal

In bull market where the trend is up,  don't do counter trend shorts!

Bearish signals are for longs exit or covering and not to take new sell positions!

Stocks to see

1. Home bancorp

2. Valutronics

3. Golden agri

4. Sino tech

5. Baic motor

6. Cathays pacific

7. 8206 C Comm

8. Lenovo

Enneagram

1. Write also abt good things..be careful not too negative abt type

2.stress point

3. Quotes  .. put quotes

4. Link back to type center ....driven by head centre

5. Traits

6. At the end.. introduce some action and reflection

Counter trend trading

Especially..

1. Hammer/ shooting star and family

2. WoW ..esp H4 WoW with daily downtrend!

Fucking key rules

1. Money manganemnt -max 1% trade!

Impulsive vs corrective moves

Using identifying impulsive and corrective moves to trade as much with the trend as possible..

****the trend is my only friend!

Hence trend should be my 内功 and most important fundamental! !!

As what Jimmy Tong scolded me.. I must trade with the trend as much as possible!

Characteristics of impulse move

1. Very obvious.. the direction can be seen

2. Big red (or white) candles that easily engulf many opposing candles by eating up then(E. G.  1 candle eat up 4 candles ) in the direction of trend

3. In the direction of trend (E. G. Bearish) most of the candles are red ( more than 80 percent are red candles)

4. The close of the candle is near the entire candle low Itself ( I. E. No or v short  wicks)

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Characteristics of corrective moves

1. Sprinkling of white and black candles in the direction (50-60 percent of each colour )

Tug of war going on.. less commitment

Hence higher chance market goes against me and I kana stopped out

2. Many spinning tops or Doji ( or g
Hammers and inverted hammers mid of trend). .indicating a lot of indecision.. there is probably no big hands supporting amd mostly retailers fighting each other
(A lot of price rejection pushing to middle )

3.many relatively smaller candles compared to rest

3 key components of my strategy

1. HTF trend

2. HTF market structure and curve

3. Trading setup or signal

  - Hammer / shooting star , engulfing and family

  - daily momentum

  - daily WoW

  - H4 momentum supported by daily TL or Daily WoW with no opposing on left of daily and R/R good

  - bat , Gartley and Cypher (forex only for Cypher)

Forex Trading Plan

Daily Momentum

Daily WoW with weekly at least in condoliation  (Unless weekly overextended)

H4 momentum with daily SD in control

H4 harmonics with daily at least in consolidation (Unless got Impy market structure)

H1 harmonics with H4 trend or key trendline

Hang Seng Trading Plan

Hang Seng 10 min hammer/shooting star

TF : 10 min

1. Hammer or shooting star hit BB2 (better if hit BB3)

2 at least 1 R/R from MA20 to wick low

3. EP 3 pts above high

4. SL 10 pts below S/R or max 75 pips

5. Time must be at least 50 min before closing

6. All hands off for 3 candles. Money mgmt to manage position from 4th candle onwards

7. Journal in diary

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930R and 115R

1. Price must move more than 70 pts and hit BB3

2. Wait for close of 1 min candle and enter on 2nd minute

3. SL 100 pips , TP 100 pips

4. When price move 50 pips shift up 50 pips too. When price move to MA20 shift to BE

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BB20

Ideas for Dr Tee and James PA workshop

Dinosaur vs cockroach  (Andy Yew)

Add affirmation.. law of secret..law of attraction

Key is to position the largest probability the trade will go in my direction

Price moves in path of least resistance.. but for ourselves the key is to move in path of most resistance at times! !!

Money management using MA!!!

Like using optimism levels... this can be an indicator for money management!

Daniel Loh bear market crash

Key takeaway

When fed funds rate go from 2.75%-3% be careful.

Action : take at least 30% profits at 2.75%, 3% get totally out of stocks

Target year to get out -2017

When fed funds rate reach 3.75%-4% Bubble burst.

In Year 2018, likely economy crash
In Year 2017 get fucking out of stock market.. since stock market will likely crash one year before economy crash

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show Nikkei example. . In 2013  

3 phases of bull run

1. Speculative phase - rise from 8000 to 16000
2. Consolidation phase - 2013 when hit 16000..then consolidation to ard 12000
3. Super growth phase

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Now US market in super growth phase..

Refer previous crashes

1. Dot com bust
2. Asian financial crisis
3. Lehman - hyper inflated property
4. Oil crisis 1973 -hyper inflated oil
5. Black October 1987 -hyper inflated stock
6. Interest rate bubble 1982

Crash only come during inflation or hyperinflation..

So now will a bear market soon? No.. because now core inflation of US still 1.8%.

We are nowhere in hyper inflation..

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***Holy grail chart.. federal funds rate chart

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2 kinds of Interest rate chart

Short term interest rate
Long term interest rate

Key date -16 Sept. Yellen will determine short term interest rate

Fed Funds is thr short term interest rate

As of Sept 2015, Fed funds rate is ard 0.025%. It has been close to 6 years where the fed funds rate is near 0. Since Ben Bernanke is the chief

Long term interest rate is more on supply and demand market forces. The long term rate is ard 2.2%

Interest rate or fed funds rate tell thr bull and bear market of economy (not stock market)

Rising interest rate - good economy
Falling interest rate -bad economy

Height of interest rate tells the height of the economy

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Interest rate cycle got to do with spending habits!

Fed funds rate

2.5-3 times -Be careful
4 times - Bubble burst

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1958 - 1% rise to 4% then bear market

1960 - 1.5% rise to 6% then near market

1976 - 5% rise to near 20% then bear market..

Everytime if it reach near 4 times then some bubble will burst!

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Whether to know if phoney or real cash.. Ask..will this affect corporate performance of Macdonald?

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Daniel loh options

1. Stick to 1 month time
2. Put option price $ less than stock price $$

E.g. now stock price is $1.32.

I (sell) short a put option at $1.2  for $5k.

Why? - I guess the price will not drop to $1.2 in 1 month time

As long as price do not drop below $1.2, I will make all the $5k.. therefore my probability of winning is high

And loss.. if the price do not drop too much from $1.2 , say price drop to $1.1, my loss from put options will be less than that if I actually hold the stock 

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EuroFX futures
Light Sweet Crude oil
Emini S&P
Golf
Coffee C
Natural Gas
Nikkei 225
Nasdaq
CBOE volatility (VIX)
30 year US T note
10 Year US T note
Soybean

Hammer as Counter trend bounce

1. Bounce must happen by 2nd candle

2. If 3rd candle half position

3. 4th candle ignore

Hammer (or hammer family) with Cloud

For stocks - daily

For Forex - h4

If hammer on or above cloud.. can hold longer. . Because with trend

If hammer below cloud.. run fast.. strictly TP on 4th or 5th candle or below MA?

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If shooting star. .opposite is true

Uptrend - Day high in afternoon , Day low in morning

Generally. .

Uptrend

1. Day low in morning  (or start of candle)
2. Day high in afternoon (or near end of candle)

Downtrend

1. Day high in morning (or start of candle)
2. Day low in afternoon  (or near end of candle)

200MA - to signify bear or bull market

200MA - found to work in all timeframe. .

When price go to 200MA .. high chance something will happen

200MA also can be good profit target!!!.. use it at least for TP1

Kathy Lien strategy

1. Daily time frame

2. Candle drop outside red  (3rd standard deviation)

3. Candle go inside the green (2nd standard deviation)

4. 1st TP - 20 MA

Bollinger Squeeze or Coca Cola

How to apply?

Only take hammer or shooting star after the coca cola goes out of gas!.. I. E.  The Bollinger band has opened very wide.. 

Usually when fear is at extreme..When people don't dare to buy! 

Bollinger Claw

Might mean big volatility coming.. be careful!

Vs coca cola.. building of energy. . Even bigger potential movement

Also.. a claw will definitely happen before a Coca Cola. . A coca cola will definitely form after a claw 

Hammer after a Coca Cola - FAIL

After a Coca Cola Bollinger squeeze. . Ignore the first hammer..

See UOB!

Multiple Hammer

1 is good

2 is better

3 is best

4 is weakening

5 is weak. .

Ignore more than 5

Note the Quasi Test Hammer may have tricked a lot of people out..

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Best hammer setup 

1. Multiple hairs or tails

2. With BB20 

Test Hammer - Jonathan

Test  Hammer for Corn below.. fake out a lot of bears.. but this test hammer happened on a important support and still high up in curve

Jonathan forex and index pairs

Mantra to recite daily

1. It is like me to embrace and love my losses and I will respect my SL integrity in tact no matter how I feel or what happens because this is my only protection to sustain long term

2. It is like me to always strictly trade on my trading plan only as I will benefit and be consistently stress free

3. It is like me to be aware and allow myself to be friends with the emotions to enjoy this heroes journey

4. It is like me to journal and I enjoy journalling my trading journey as  I will be stronger and committed to my goals and life.

Lost big money in Index , HS, Dax

Root cause

1. Keep shifting my stop loss.. angry with God angry with everybody why I keep losing

2. No trading plan

3. Anyhow press button to trade - hence kana a Dax unwanted loss!

Correction

1. To focus only on few counters or index to trade. . The rest SHUT OFF!!! If I fucking can't make money on small money or a few counters. . I will not make money and even lose big money doing others

2. To do KY template everyday and send to him every day

Corrective action

1. To do a Mantra (not more than 5 verses) to be recited 3 times a day.. Once in morning in bus, 2nd during lunch time before lunch,  3rd time before sleep

2. To do my trading plan and I am only allowed to trade if I have a plan!!!!

Preventive action

1. To join Jonathan class every round to learn deeply and let his expertise ingrained in me..

2. To learn Tim Weller trend trading and only trade on pullback!

3. Daily emotion journal - post on blogspot and KY template. .

Read everyday!  At least 3 emotional journals every morning!

CC homework - Intro

Qn 1 - What are the 3 main blocks for my successful trading

1. Trading on emotion - trade on people tips, revenge trading(including anger why I follow keep losing )

2. Not doing my trade journal

3. Not doing trading plan and follow strictly

Qn 2 -What do I see as my main challenges for consistent performance

1. Ego and wanting to "force " market to go my way

(Think Donovan ang)

2. Not cutting loss when wrong.. see my crude oil, Aeropostale etc

3. Laziness to do trade journal

Qn 3. What are the mistakes I see myself repeat over and over again?

1. Not cutting loss (Aeropostale, Baba, ABL)
2. Shifting my stop loss down (think Crude oil)
3. Waste my free time on LFC instead of improving myself or doing important but not urgent tasks (E. G. Study PMP)
4. Procrastinate and eventually not updating my trade journal
5. Jumping from one strategy to another.

Qn 4. What is the primary reason why you are here now

1. To learn about my brain and neuroplasticity

2. To learn and build my winning trading mindset and positive psychology

3. To grow stronger emotionally and spiritually through trading and winning

Qn 5 - What would a successful trader mean to you?

1. Ability to conquer ones demons and attain detachment emotionally and spiritually

2. Lifetime and lifelong skill for financial survival

Qn 6 - What will it give me?

1. Finally after losing so many years and spending so much time and effort, all are well worth it

2. I will gain growth emotionally and spiritually

3. Financial Abdundance to create more Abundance in my life and my family and friends

Qn 7 -How will I feel when I achieved this?

1. Happiness
2. Relax and calmness
3. Joy in life
4. Freedom and lightness
5. Satisfaction in my life

Wong Yee - 3 key things

1. RSI

A. RSI is a cycle! Look at it as a cycle with winter, spring, summer, autumn

B. RSI is not just oversold and overbought.. in a super bullish market RSI overbought is not a sell signal!

C. RSI is the "best" indicator for price oscillation as it is directly related to price.

2. Interest rate by fed  effect is most important. .

Also look at effect of bond and property market

If follow economist and accountants talking abt economy or PE ratio. .too late liao.. stock market and bond market move faster than economy

3. Syndicate only play the stock one timr.. I should just earn big money from one stock and say bye bye

Fibo time and price different legs

Remember Fib projection can also use time ratio to do projection. .

hence I can also calculate 16 days using Fib projection...

VOLUME - Vol on price, vertical volume etc

1. Vol of price shows value. .usually propionate also to time spent

2. Vol vertical bar show conviction. . Impt for confirmation of trend change. . From Consolidation to new trend or end of trend to Consolidation

3. High vol on vertical bar shows strong market direction and often signify big market players play. .

4. If there is low vol and big price increase. . The odds of new trend is much lower..

Danger : if a significant support or resistance is broken with low vol.. then the odds of a fake breakout is higher!

5. But.. also if there is a large vol at end after an extended price rally. . That could be a climax vol and trend may change drastically!  (See pic)

When to short index?- Pic of daily WoW short

Take note.. area should be a monthly SZ in control..

If all time high..it's still low odds

Channels, Pennants, Wedge

Ways to draw channel

After draw either bottom line  (uptrend) or top line  (downtrend),

Method 1 : draw parallel line to the other side

Method 2 : link opposite side tops or bottom

Both are valid... I should observe price action when near the lines  (E. G. Any hammer, shooting star , piercing, engulfing patterns?)

Also confluence with key SD zones or flip zones?

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What to do when channel break?

E..G bear channel.. when bottom channel break. .  Find the next swing low and draw a parallel line w.r.t. to top line